Bangladesh’s population growth will fall to 0.37% in 2045 from 1.11% currently due to the continued low fertility rate, pushing the number of people to just over 20 crores that year, according to a new report by the UN.
The population will peak at around 20.69 crores in 2061 before dropping to 17.64 crores by the end of this century, as projected by the United Nations Department of Social and Economic Affairs.
The UN report titled “World Population Prospects 2022” released on July 11 showed that over the past 50 years, the fertility rate has dropped markedly in Bangladesh.
The UN estimated that in 1972 a family had seven children per woman on average, which fell to 1.98 children in 2021 and the number is expected to drop further to 1.76 in 2045, 1.74 in 2061 and 1.7 in 2100.
The falling fertility rate means the country could have a declining population by the end of the century.
Professor Mohammad Mainul Islam, former chair of the Department of Population Science at the University of Dhaka, said, “Family planning workers, who have worked at the grassroots level, are the key players in this success story. [a lower fertility rate].”
Media campaigns, women’s education and employment also played a vital role, he also said.
“We are having a very good time in terms of realizing the first demographic dividend which will continue until 2035 or 2037. We will benefit from the first demographic dividend, if all the policies work together with regard to the planned age pyramid, the education and health, job creation and good governance,” he continued.
The second demographic dividend will come after 2047-2048, when the country may see an increasing aging population in the labor market and this could be a problem if they do not receive the appropriate health care and social support from the government. , he noted.
“To capitalize on our current human resources, we need to invest more in quality and market-oriented technical education, health and job creation,” he added.
The Bangladesh population policy of 2012, which was valid until 2015, needs to be updated.
Additionally, there is a need to strengthen family planning in both urban and rural areas, Mainul Islam said.
In 2021, the average fertility of the world’s population was 2.3 births per woman over the lifetime, after falling by about 5 births per woman in 1950. World fertility is expected to fall further to 2.1 births per woman by 2050.
“Further actions by governments to reduce fertility would have little impact on the rate of population growth by mid-century, due to the youthful age structure of today’s world population,” said John Wilmoth, director of the UN Population Division. Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Nevertheless, the cumulative effect of a decline in fertility, if sustained over several decades, could be a more substantial deceleration in global population growth in the second half of the century, he also said.
Even though the population of Bangladesh has increased from 6.93 crore in 1972 to 16.94 crore in 2021, the growth rate has slowed. Growth was 2.57% in 1972, which fell to 1.11% in 2021.
With a growth rate of just 0.37%, the UN expects the number of people in Bangladesh to peak at around 20.69 crores in 2061, before falling back to 17.64 crores by the end of the year. end of the century.
Meanwhile, the UN has estimated that at 1,301 people per square kilometer, the population density in Bangladesh is much higher than in some of the world’s most populous countries, such as China, India, the United States. United, Indonesia and Pakistan in 2021.
It is expected to be higher at 1,542 people per square kilometer in 2045 and 1,590 in 2061, before falling back to 1,355 by the end of the century.
India will overtake China as the most populous nation in 2023
India is on track to overtake China as the world’s most populous country in 2023, each with over 1.4 billion people this year.
Meanwhile, the world’s population is expected to reach 8 billion by November 15 this year, could reach 8.5 billion in 2030 and 10.4 billion in 2100, as the rate of mortality slows.
More than half of the projected increase in world population to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania.
The 46 least developed countries are among the fastest growing in the world. The populations of many of them are projected to double between 2022 and 2050, putting additional pressure on resources and posing challenges to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, the report reads.
However, the population of 61 countries is projected to decline by 1% or more between 2022 and 2050, due to a decline in fertility.