Andhra Pradesh, with a coastline stretching about 1,000 km, is the most exposed state on the east coast of India to cyclones and storm surges. It has seen some of the most devastating cyclones, storm surges and tidal waves in the Bay of Bengal.
Researchers studied Cyclone Amphan, which narrowly missed PA but made landfall in Odisha-West Bengal during the May 2020 pandemic, as a model to predict future cyclones. It also shows that future super cyclones will expose many more people in the most vulnerable parts of the world to extreme flooding. AP is one of the most vulnerable places in terms of cyclones and floods.
The study found that super cyclones, the most intense form of tropical storm, are likely to have a more devastating impact on people in South Asia in years to come. The international research, led by the University of Bristol, looked at 2020’s Super Cyclone Amphan – the costliest cyclone to make landfall in South Asia – and projected its consequences under different sea level rise scenarios due to global warming.
Its findings, published in the Royal Meteorological Society’s journal Climate Resilience and Sustainability on Monday, showed that if the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere continued on the same scale, more than two and a half times (250% ) the Indian population would experience flooding of more than one meter, compared to the 2020 event.
Lead author Dann Mitchell, professor of climate science at the University of Bristol, said: “South Asia is one of the most climate-sensitive regions in the world, with super cyclones causing dozens of hundreds of thousands of deaths in historical cases.Comparatively, very little research on climate impact has been conducted in South Asia, despite the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change designating it as a region also critical.
Exposures in India showed an alarming 50% to 80% increase in the population expected to experience floods in the future.
“This study shows that the exposure of the population in Bangladesh and India will increase by up to 200% in the future in the event of extreme storm surge flooding (greater than 3 meters) from intense cyclones in high emissions scenarios. Therefore, strong, rapid and sustained greenhouse reduction is essential to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and reduce loss and damage,” the researchers said.
The researchers added: “Therefore, a strong, rapid and sustained reduction in greenhouse gases is essential to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement and reduce loss and damage.”